After the first round of debates - Democrat and Republican, I still predict:

Democrat:  Hillary Clinton for President, Obama for VP

Republican:  Rudy Giuliani for President

Note that I no longer list Mitt Romney for GOP VP.  I think that Romneys flip flops have damaged him, and at this point, I can’t imagine Rudy taking him on as VP.

VP slot could go to McCain or one of the others in the running… Still shaking out.

Potential Upset:  Fred Thompson is building a great deal of momentum, while remaining aloof from the fray.  I can detect the beginnings of a conservative ground swell for a Ronald Reagan surrogate, and Fred fills the bill.  One wonders if the opposition research can find anything worth exploiting on him.  One of Giuliani’s greatest strengths as a candidate, is that he has been investigated by some of the best, and all of his skeletons have long been brought out of the closet.

There is another aspect to the Presidential race shaping up:  The Immigration debate going on right now is sifting out the Country Club Republicans from the Conservative Republicans.  By late this year, this issue will have been dealt with, and the leaders for the GOP nomination will be the ones who have gathered up the support of the base, and can spend spend the better part of a year pulling others into their camp.  The Democrats have their own test with the Iraq War.  The ultimate leaders of the Democrat nomination will be the most anti-war, without seeming like a moon-bat.

In either case, after the Ferbruary primaries, both parties candidates will be set.  We will then have an unprecedented 8 month long battle between the nominees.  This may be the one time when the conventional wisdom that a Vice Presidential pick can’t help you, but they can hurt you, is proven wrong.  Both Presidential nominees will need their Veep pick done early, and out working the campaign trail in their name.